Following the Campaign Trail of Puntland Presidential Hopefuls
Given that one couldn’t go out and arbitrarily amass a sample of franchised individuals in relation to who they intend to vote for, it’s quite trying to predict the outcome of this week’s presidential election. But one could gauge the wind of the wind of each presidential hopeful garnering out of the sixty-six up for grabs votes. Engaging banter is gathering in the coffee shops; everybody reserves one’s conjecture for posterity pending the water is cleared.
The term “cleared” refers to the period until the legitimate candidates submit their bids and pay the associated twenty-thousand-dollar fee to enter the race. But then again, in an oddly over- the-years-developed experience, by and large, the portion of the vote each parliamentary chair contender mustered in the pool of representative samples reflects the share of the votes in contention presidential front runners can expect. Another aspect of this sixth round (including the fallen-through one of Jama Ali Jama) of the presidential election since Puntland’s inception remains, in historical chronicles, that the incumbent always is in a vantage point and has the edge over others.
The current president got in there by a whisker, and the debate of repeating the same scenario has been and still is in full swing at the hotels of Garowe. On the other hand, after electing Abdihakim Mohamed Ahmed (Dhobo Daarood) as the chair of the House of Representatives, the permutation for the president in office to follow in the footsteps of his predecessors is doubtful and almost consigned him to the penumbra. Thus, for that prediction to materialise or otherwise, since there are numerous bizarre instances it can go wrong, remains to be seen. For the other contenders, the messages emanating from the respective candidates, especially those firmly in contention vying for ones, courts broaches that there are quite a half a dozen that are jostling for position as front runners. For example, the names that frequently came back again and again include Said Deni, Mohamud Khalif (Jebiye), Ali Issa, Khalif Issa, Farah Ali Shire, Abdi Farah (Juxa) and Hassan Osman (Diana).
It’s only a matter of two days to live through the victor for the top job out of the above list if the majority of disenfranchised populace predictions are right. Furthermore, if anything, the incumbent hardly features in the names emanating from the discourse mills. In that respect, prejudice could easily creep in through the approach individuals are being picked for a skim-through survey. Since the government machines are lopsidedly at his disposal, one always conscientiously remains careful in dismissing the sitting president. The other thing that makes this sort of election forecasting very sophisticated business isn’t on either the national share of the ballot or upon who wins the majority of votes in each constituency, but on the number of seats accessible in the House of Representatives combined with what historic election results, going back to 1998, presage. In that respect, let’s do some deliberations by first laying open the accepted modus vivendi since the Puntland State’s inception: that Majerteen, tacitly Mohamud Saleeban, are equated to the office of the president, Dhulbahante Harti for the vice president and Warsangeli Harti for the chair of the House of Representatives, of which they already garnered major colours. With the passage of
time, only twice had the arrangement been disturbed in which the Dhulbahante and Warsangeli Harti, in a fallen-through shot, sought the presidency. What one meant in here is for Dr Ali Issa to have a go for the ticket of the presidency and frustrate the accepted deal, carrying with that atavistic fear for Dhulbahante Harti to adventurously vacate the vice- presidential locus, even though the presidential election comes prior to the vice president and Salwe and Eenow could easily step into the vice-presidential ticket, and Tanade (Leelkase) Darood skulking in the peripheries steps into their shoes. Notwithstanding, he is one of the names that crops up when asked the banter, “Who will be the next president?” But for him to frustrate the putative deal remains to be seen. Looking from a different perspective, when the debate goes overdrive and transcends to another layer for the participants of any discourse regarding who wins the election, within the M Saleeban rotational understanding, this time round it’s for Osman Mohamud (OM), and in that respect Said Deni, Jebiye and Khalif Mudan names respectively and ubiquitously come back in full force among the long list vying for them. Nonetheless, in the same discourse, this term’ uniqueness is that other M Saleeban candidates, such as Abdi Farah (Juxa) and Ali Haji Warsame, are jostling for position and hellbent on dislodging OM and stepping into their spot.
Fielding some questions regarding the possibility of displacing OM by Abdi Farah (Juxa) and Ali Haji Warsame, it’s conceivably a remote expectation. In conclusion, almost two-thirds of the representatives are unsullied and young folks whose voting propensities are problematic to predict, and only the above analysis gives you a way of bestowing subjective judgement. But one ought to hold one’s horses before jumping to a conclusion and endorse the above analysis, as the cash factor always pops in an unassumed contender into the best seat of the theatre.
As a matter of living through it, almost throughout the last couple of months, the campaign trail has been in full swing, and contenders have superseded one another according to who digs one’s pocket deeper, and if it materialises in the election hall or otherwise remains to be seen. I rest my case.
